Keeping It Free: September 2009

JFK, 1962

THE PRESIDENT. If the United States refused to cash in dollars for gold, then everyone would go to the gold standard and the United States, which is the reserve currency of the whole free world – we would all be dependent upon the available supply of gold, which is quite limited.
Obviously, it isn’t enough to finance the great movements of trade today and it would be the most backward step that the United States has taken since the end of the Second World War. We have substantially improved our position this quarter, the second quarter over the first quarter. Our loss is down to almost a third of what it was in the first quarter. Our loss, based on the first and second quarter of this year, is about half of what it was last year, and about a third of what it was the year before. We hope that we can bring our balance of payments into balance by the end of next year.
We are not going to devalue. There is no possible use in the United States devaluing. Every other currency in a sense is tied to the dollar; if we devalued, all other currencies would devalue and so that those who speculate against the dollar are going to lose. The United States will not devalue its dollar. And the fact of the matter is the United States can balance its balance of payments any day it wants if it wishes to withdraw its support of our defense expenditures overseas and our foreign aid.

MUFG chief economist Chris Rupkey

Robert Shiller - Naturally Occurring Ponzi Schemes

Speculative feedback loops that are in effect naturally occurring Ponzi schemes do arise from time to time without the contrivance of a fraudulent manager. Even if there is no manipulator fabricating false stories and deliberately deceiving investors in the aggregate stock market, tales about the market are everywhere….. The path of a naturally occurring Ponzi scheme – if we may call speculative bubbles that – will be more irregular and less dramatic since there is no direct manipulation but the path may sometimes resemble that of a Ponzi scheme when it is supported by naturally occurring stories.

-- Robert Shiller

Bill Gross - Elite's Gameplan

How policymakers plan to solve a long-term global debt crisis:

1. As in Japan, the Eurozone, the U.S., and the UK, central banks bought/buy increasing amounts of government debt (QE), then rebate all interest to their Treasuries and eventually extend bond maturities. Someday they might even “forgive” the debt. Poof! It’s gone.

2. Keep interest rates artificially low to raise asset prices and bail out over-indebted zombie corporations and individuals. Extend and pretend.

3. Talk about “normalization” to maintain as steep a yield curve as possible to help financial institutions with long-term liabilities, but normalize very, very slowly using financial repression.

4. Liberalize accounting rules to make some potentially “bankrupt” insurance companies and pension funds appear solvent. Puerto Rico, anyone?

5. Downgrade or never mention the low interest rate burden on household savers. Suggest it is a problem that eventually will be resolved by the “market”.

6. Begin to emphasize “fiscal” as opposed to “monetary” policy, but never mention Keynes or significant increases in government deficit spending. Use the buzzwords of “infrastructure” spending and “lower taxes”. Everyone wants those potholes fixed, don’t they? Everyone wants lower taxes too!

7. Promote capitalism – even though government controlled, near zero percent interest rates distort markets and ultimately corrupt capitalism as we once understood it. Reintroduce Laffer Curve logic to significantly lower corporate taxes. Foster hope. Discourage acknowledgement of abysmal productivity trends which are a critical test of an economic system’s effectiveness.

8. If you are a policymaker or politician, plan to eventually retire from the Fed/Congress/ Executive Wing and claim it’ll be up to the Millennials now. If you are an active as opposed to passive investment manager, fight the developing trend of low fee ETFs and index funds. But expect to retire with a nest egg.

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